•Reforms, stronger private investment to power recovery
The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, up from the 4.0 per cent expansion recorded in 2025, as improving macroeconomic stability and a gradual recovery in private investment strengthen the country’s outlook.
The projection was contained in the lender’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, released on Tuesday. The World Bank also projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.
The lender attributed the improved outlook to the impact of ongoing economic reforms, better macroeconomic management, strengthening investor confidence and a gradual revival in private-sector investment.
“Economic activity in Nigeria is projected to strengthen from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, before edging up to 4.4 percent annually in 2027–28, supported by improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence, and a gradual recovery in private investment,” the World Bank said.
Nigeria was listed alongside Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia among the Sub-Saharan African economies whose growth forecasts were upgraded in the latest assessment.
Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, said the region continued to demonstrate resilience despite a difficult global environment, with growth forecasts revised upwards for nearly three-quarters of countries.
“These gains reflect years of reforms and improved economic management,” Dabalen said, while stressing that the next challenge would be to translate stronger growth into more jobs and better opportunities.
The World Bank raised its forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, from 4.1 per cent in its April projection. The new outlook reflects stronger domestic demand, improved macroeconomic resilience and investments connected to the global energy transition and digital technologies.
However, the lender warned that the region continued to face risks from geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, tighter global financial conditions, climate shocks, insecurity and elevated debt-servicing costs.
The revised outlook follows stronger-than-expected domestic economic activity in the second quarter of 2026.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s real gross domestic product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025 and 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.
The performance was supported by improvements in both the oil and non-oil sectors. The oil sector expanded by 7.31 per cent, while the non-oil economy grew by 4.31 per cent.
The services sector remained the largest contributor to output, accounting for 56.62 per cent of real GDP and growing by 4.60 per cent during the quarter. Agriculture also improved, expanding by 4.39 per cent, compared with 2.82 per cent a year earlier.
Average daily crude oil production rose to 1.72 million barrels per day in Q2, from 1.55 million barrels per day in the preceding quarter and 1.68 million barrels per day in Q2 2025.
Despite the stronger headline growth, the recovery remains uneven. Industrial growth slowed to 3.96 per cent from 7.46 per cent a year earlier, highlighting continued pressures from high operating costs, infrastructure gaps, energy shortages and limited access to affordable finance.
The World Bank also urged African governments to invest in artificial intelligence and build AI-ready economies to raise productivity, support innovation and create jobs. It identified Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa as among the countries where AI adoption is already gaining ground.
For Nigeria, the upgraded forecast suggests that reforms are beginning to improve confidence and economic activity. However, sustaining growth at the projected pace will depend on whether macroeconomic stability can translate into stronger private investment, higher productivity, job creation and improved living standards.
